This volume reviews the social and political developments of the Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia and Romania in the first half of 2020. In the respective countries, everything has beenovershadowed by the increasingly spreading coronavirus epidemic. However, besides coronavirus there were important political developments taking place in each of the respective countries. There were two new governments (Slovakia, Romania), ongoing battle for judicial independence and a weird presidential election campaign in Poland, the so-called „smart quarantine” in Czech Republic and so on. Coronavirus has hit each of them, however the three Visegrad countries (Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia) belong to the mid-infected countries, relative low number of cases (compared to the Western European countries), but the economic impact of the epidemic is severe and painful. The analysis has been made by the staff of the Republikon Institute and István Szent-Iványi as an external expert.
As in the previous month, the coronavirus outbreak dominated the news in all four respective countries in April 2020 as well. Maybe Poland is a slight exception where other important political issues (presidential election, judicial fight, ban of abortion) were playing also a pivotal role in the domestic political arena. As of the pandemic figures, there are two outliers among the four countries: Slovakia is a champion of the low mortality rate, not only within the four countries, but throughout Europe. Romania was severely hit by the coronavirus outbreak and both the number of registered cases and the death toll are high compared to the other three countries. The first half of the month determined by the strict restriction, but Czech Republic started first in Europe to ease gradually the restrictive measures. With exception of Romania, the two others followed the Czech path in the second half of the month. The lockdown could successfully slow the epidemic, but at the same time caused serious downturn of the economic performance. The Czech government introduced the so-called smart quarantine. Let us take a look at the countries on the one-by-one cases.
In May, the coronavirus pandemic was still playing a prevailing role in our respective countries but some other important political and economic developments have taken place, too. Slovakia preserved its merit of being the European champion both in registered cases and low mortality. Czech Republic is doing well too and these two countries started the gradual easing of the lockdown restrictions in big steps. Poland is not yet peaked, the number of new cases is relatively high, but the mortality rate is around the CEE standard which is much lower than the overall European average. Romania is lagging behind the other three countries, the pandemic situation is still worrying. Besides the coronavirus, in each country there are other plays on the political stage.
In Czech Republic the new episodes of the Russian spy story were frightening the public. In Poland the turmoil and chaos around the presidential election caused public excitement, in Slovakia the fight against corruption is continued with full steam ahead, in Romania the tensions between the President, government and the ethnic Hungarians and the Hungarian government was entertaining the political class.
In May more concerns stemmed from the economic impact of pandemic than the outbreak itself. Every country has been hit by significant economic decline, including Poland which has been the only EU country without drop of its economic growth amid the financial crisis in 2008-2009. All four countries’ export is vulnerable and exposed to the decline of the car industry and the freefall of the demand in the car market. At the moment no one can precisely estimate the magnitude of the economic losses, but there is a consensus among the analysts that every country will suffer under severe economic downturn. The same has affected the labor market and caused a rapid increase of unemployment, especially in Romania where the number of recently unemployed persons is estimated around 900 000.
At the end of June, when Prague organized a giant farewell party for coronavirus and thousands celebrated the end of the pandemic at a 500-metre-long table on the Charles Bridge sharing food and drinks they had brought from home. Now it is obvious that this celebration was premature. Not only in Czech Republic, but along the global trends in all of our respective countries the coronavirus outbreak is in place and even more contagious than before. There are differences, of course: again, Slovakia is in a relatively good situation, contained the COVID-19 at the best, and Romania is in the worst situation, but everywhere the number of the cases are increasing. Romania reached a sad European record on August 25: the highest number of deaths in a day of Europe and also entered in the club of top five European countries with active cases. The school year will begin soon and there are plenty of uncertainities. Everywhere the authorities want to start the school year in real and not in virtual, but under serious precautionary conditions. There are some highly infected regions and areas, where the school year will begin in digital again.
The figures of the economic downturn were disappointing everywhere; however, it seemd to be, that Poland had a relative low contraction at the end of the year and again Romania had the most severe fall among our four countries. The unemployment rate is rapidly increasing in Slovakia and Romania and relative slight increase is detected in Czech Republic and in Poland. The budget deficit has already increased very high and the hope for the V-shape recovery is vanishing.
The Visegrad 3 countries took very firm stand on Belarus crisis: they immediately condemned the authorities about the fraudulent presidential election and the brutal police violence against the demonstrators. They required a new election under the surveillance of the international election observers. Poland was in the forefront of these position and called a special.
Summit to take stand on this issue. Romanis is very much preoccupied with its own troubled coronovairus situation and the overheated domestic politics. It is looming a new government crisis while the PSD (the largest opposition party) submitted newly a no-confidence motion to the parliament. There is a big turmoil around the local elections taking place at the end of September. The gem of the election is the capital city: not by chance there are 18 candidates for mayorship of Bucharest, but the real race is between the ruling party PNL and the major opposition party PSD candidates.
In Poland there were two cover stories: the ongoing war against the judiciary and war on the LMBTQ community. It looks like that the so called „Kulturkapmf” is going with full steam ahead. The arch-conservative minor coalition partner is leading this crusade against the LMBTQ community, but of course with full support by the major ruling party PiS and the newly reelected President Duda.
The whole publication is available HERE.
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